How we survived 5 years in the most dangerous market in the world.

Taking risks in a domain with catastrophic events. To win, you have to survive. Code for this simulation at the bottom.

In any domain that contains extreme events, it is a mistake to bank your survival on your ability to precisely predict and avoid those events. Our knowledge of the world is imperfect, and there will always be an extreme case that is not in the historical data.

Rather, we should focus our attention on the impact such events would have were they to happen, and structure our systems such that they can survive, absorb, and even grow in their presence.

Expect the worst to happen. Plan how to survive it.

Case Study I: The day a bug almost gave away all our money

Case Study II: Trusting people you don’t trust

Every month a new headline like this

Details < Approach < Understanding



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